Results of The Advocate's 2005 Predictions
Here are the results of my 2005 Small Business Advocate Crystal Ball Predictions, what happened, and my score.
2005 Prediction: Despite the efforts by terrorists, Iraqi elections will be successful.
Reality: There have been three elections in Iraq in 2005, thanks to many courageous Americans. Plus 1.
2005 Prediction: Desperation will cause Islamic terrorists to attempt poorly executed attacks against the U.S. and/or England.
Reality: Two attacks were conducted against England in 2005, one executed successful and one poorly. Sadly, plus 1.
2005 Prediction: As a result of the Oil For Food scandal, Kofi Annan will not finish the year at the helm of the U.N.
Reality: The Volker Commission connected Annan directly to the scandal, but incredibly, stopped short of calling for his ouster. Minus 1, under protest.
2005 Prediction: There will be one opening in the Supreme Court and it will be a surprise.
Reality: Okay, there were actually two openings, but the big prediction was the surprise, which was the death of Chief Justice Rehnquist, so I'm taking this one.
2005 Prediction: Senator Hillary Clinton will begin actively seeking the 2008 Democrat presidential nomination.
Reality: Few things became more certain politically in 2005 than the 2008 presidential candidacy of HRC. Plus 1.
2005 Prediction: Momentum will be achieved toward privatizing Social Security, but there will be no definitive progress, like a bill.
Reality: Sometimes I even scare myself. Plus 1.
2005 Prediction: Association Health Plans will pass, allowing small businesses to to purchase group health insurance across state lines.
Reality: Hope got in the way of reason. Minus 1.
2005 Prediction: The 2003 tax cuts will be made permanent.
Reality: Call me Pollyanna. Minus 1.
2005 Prediction: The U.S. economy will grow at over 4%.
Reality: Should have predicted a record Hurricane season. Still, the actual rate will be close to 4%. Minus 1.
2005 Prediction: The Fed will raise interest at every meeting until it's a half point above annual inflation.
Reality: Thirteen increases and still chasing inflation. Plus 1.
2005 Prediction: The annual unemployment rate will end the year below 5%.
Reality: As of this writing, unemployment is at 5% and heading down. I'm taking this one, too.
2005 Prediction: Crude oil prices will average at least $40 per barrel, resulting in average gas prices above $1.70.
Reality: Unfortunately, I got this one. Wish it weren't so.
Write this on a rock... That's 8 for 12 in '05. I'll take a .666 average anytime.
Jim Blasingame
Small Business Expert and host of The Small Business Advocate Show
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