Blasingame's 2010 prediction results
Here are my 2010 predictions from last January 3rd, followed by what happened and my score.
Prediction: U.S. GDP will be between 2% - 3%. Actual: Year-to-date GDP is 2.23%. Plus 1.
Prediction: This recovery will not be good for start-ups. Actual: July 2010Business Week headline: “Start-up activity at record low.” Plus 1.
Prediction: Growing small business loan demand will signal Main Street recovery. Actual: The NFIB Small Business Survey reported weak loan demand throughout 2010. Minus 1.
Prediction: 2010 will not see large banks returning to small business lending. Actual: Weak demand and their own financial problems caused this to come to pass. Plus 1.
Prediction: The housing industry will continue to challenge the recovery. Actual: Foreclosures are up national median home price is down. Plus 1.
Prediction: The second jobless recovery in a decade will keep unemployment above 9%. Actual: Through November 2010, U.S. unemployment was 9.8%. Plus 1.
Prediction: A new aversion to debt will stunt economic growth. Actual: De-leveraging – a global phenomenon for individuals, companies and sovereign nations – has become one of the iconic residuals of the Great Recession. Plus 1.
Prediction: U.S. stock markets will not advance on merely cost cutting and without market performance. Actual: Wall Street gains have defied my logic, but sadly, these gains are being paid for by millions of unemployed Americans. Minus 1.
Prediction: Health care “reform” legislation will be signed into law along party lines. Actual: On March 23, President Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act without one Republican vote. Plus 1.
Prediction: Election-year realities will cause Democrats to forsake pro-union and cap-and-trade legislation. Actual: Neither issue was a serious legislative threat in 2010. Plus 1.
Prediction: Republicans will increase seats in both houses without gaining control of either but will win a filibuster minority in the Senate. Actual: Got three out of four, thanks to the Tea Party. We’ll call this a push.
Prediction: The federal government will keep California out of bankruptcy. New York will follow. Actual: Like the 2009 General Motors bankruptcy I predicted in 2006, this cake just has to bake a little longer. Minus 1.
Write this on a rock – Final 2010 score: 8 right, 3 wrong, one push, putting my 10-year accuracy at 70.2%. How did you do?
Jim Blasingame is creator and host of the Small Business Advocate Show.
Copyright 2010, author retains ownership. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright 2010, author retains ownership. All Rights Reserved.
Category: Articles by Jim Blasingame
