Results of Jim Blasingame's 2008 Predictions
Here is a recap of my 2008 Small Business Advocate Crystal Ball Predictions, what actually happened and my score.
This is going to be ugly.
Prediction: If there is a recession, it began in Q4 '07 and will be over by Q1 '08.
Reality: Got the first part (impressive, huh?) but missed the second part. For scoring purposes, +1, -1.
Prediction: The economy will absorb the credit meltdown through Q2, followed by a second half GDP growth rate of at least 3%.
Reality: Even the smart guys missed this one; -1.
Prediction: The
Reality: Saw the slowing, but not the dropping; -1.
Prediction: Finding qualified people will continue to be the single greatest challenge of small business owners.
Reality: This problem didn't go away, but the overall economy became the big news; -1.
Prediction: The Core Inflation Rate will average no more than 3%.
Reality: Got this one. Inflation has been a non-issue, even with record oil prices; +1.
Prediction: The Fed will ease interest rates to no lower than a 3% Fed Funds Rate at year-end.
Reality: Rates were recently cut to virtually zero. Unprecedented in
Prediction: The global credit crisis will not result in less credit available to small businesses.
Reality: In fact, small businesses faired the best in the credit crisis, since most do business with independent community banks, who typically have no toxic assets on their balance sheets. +1.
Prediction: Oil prices will average above $85 per barrel.
Reality: Crude oil averaged approx. $104 in 2008; +1
Prediction: Nationally, housing sales and prices will stabilize and trend upward by year-end.
Reality: Yikes! What was I thinking? -1.
Prediction: There will not be a national mortgage foreclosures crisis.
Reality: In 2008, the crisis was in the perception of the value of mortgage-backed securities, not foreclosures; +1. This may change in 2009.
Prediction:
Reality: Thank you, American military and Iraqi nationalists; +1.
Prediction:
Reality: Backed by high crude revenues, Putin became nostalgic for the Cold War, invaded
Prediction: Mike Huckabee will be somewhere on the '08 Republican national ticket.
Reality: Even McCain didn't know who Sarah P. was on
Prediction: New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will be the '08 Democrat VP nominee.
Reality: Can I at least get a push since he's in Obama's cabinet? Fine; -1.
Write this on a rock... That makes my '08 record 7 for 15, putting a big dent in my 7-year average of 72%. Next week my '09 predictions.
Jim Blasingame is creator and host of The Small Business Advocate Show.
Copyright 2008. All Rights Reserved.
